Why I’m Writing This

What we own isn't what we think we own.

Last month, I looked at what most index fund investors actually own. Not what they think they own—what the math says they own.

The Magnificent Seven now represent 32% of the S&P 500. Nvidia alone is 8%. What started as diversified exposure has become a concentrated bet on seven companies executing perfectly on AI monetization, energy infrastructure, and geopolitical stability. This happened through index mechanics, not active decisions.

The question everyone asks—”Is AI a bubble?”—misses the point. The real question: When did portfolio diversification become portfolio concentration, and what breaks first if the assumptions don’t hold?

I spent the past month pulling institutional research, academic studies, government infrastructure reports, corporate filings, and thousands of investor discussions. What I found isn’t a simple bubble or no-bubble answer. It’s two markets operating simultaneously—one rational, one manic—both resting on a $400 billion annual capex cycle that assumes enterprise productivity returns that 95% of companies aren’t seeing yet.

The base case is solid. AI is real, the technology works, the profits are massive. But the concentration risk, the circular dependencies, the physical energy constraints, and the geopolitical single points of failure are equally real. They’re measurable, documented, and largely ignored.

Structure beats prediction. The goal isn’t to time which scenario unfolds. It’s to position portfolios that compound in the base case and survive the alternatives.

What This Is

I write about portfolio positioning for the AI revolution—how to capture the upside while hedging concentration and tail risks. Topics include market structure, circular dependencies, physical constraints, and what actually breaks when assumptions stop holding.

Twice a month, usually. When there’s something worth saying.

No market timing. No predictions. No false certainty about unknowable futures. Just probabilistic scenarios, specific positioning frameworks, and monitoring variables that matter.

What You Get

Scenario Memos: Analysis of current macro events (AI rallies, gold surges, rate shifts, geopolitical tensions) through three-scenario probability frameworks. Base case, alternative case, tail risk—with explicit positioning across the Hedging Matrix.

What You Won’t Get

Daily commentary. Stock picks. Trading signals. Generic advice. Narrative-driven analysis that starts with a conclusion. False certainty presented as insight.

Who This Is For

Self-directed investors managing meaningful capital who want structural positioning guidance for the AI revolution. People who recognize the most dangerous moments look calm until they don’t.

If you need someone to tell you what to do, this isn’t it. If you want frameworks for thinking through complex problems, subscribe.

Why I Write

Because I couldn’t find the analysis I wanted to read. Everything is either permabull (AI will save us all), permabear (everything crashes), or hedged into meaninglessness. I wanted probabilistic scenarios with explicit position sizing, liquidity management, and behavioral guardrails.

The AI revolution is the defining macro event of our generation. It creates both the greatest wealth-building opportunity and the greatest concentration risk. Portfolio positioning must address both simultaneously.

That’s the work. Subscribe below.